/Ag Economy Barometer falls for second month; rising input costs causing concern for farmers

Ag Economy Barometer falls for second month; rising input costs causing concern for farmers

July 6, 2021

Ag Financial system Barometer falls for second month; rising enter prices inflicting concern for farmers

Ag Financial system Barometer falls for second month; rising enter prices inflicting concern for farmers (Purdue/CME Group Ag Financial system Barometer/James Mintert).
Acquire Photo

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO — The Purdue College/CME Group Ag Financial system Barometer marks a second month of sharp declines, down 21 factors to a studying of 137 in June. Producers have been much less optimistic about each curlease circumstances on their farming operations As properly as to their anticipateations for The Prolonged time period. The Index of Curlease Conditions dropped 29 factors to a studying of 149, and the Index of Future Expectations fell 17 factors to a studying of 132. The Ag Financial system Barometer is calculated every month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was carried out June 21-25.

“Farmers anticipate their enter prices to rise A lot extra quickly Inside the yr forward than They’ve Over the previous decade, contributing to their considerations about their farm funds and monetary future,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue College’s Center for Enterprise Agriculture.

Since peaking in April, producers’ view of their farms’ monetary pertypeance has fallen sharply. The Farm Financial Pertypeance Index, which Is predicated on A question that asks producers about anticipateations For his or her farm’s monetary pertypeance this yr As in contrast with final yr, declined 30 factors this month, and 42 factors since April, to a studying of 96.

Weakening perceptions of farm monetary pertypeance spilled over into the Farm Capital Funding Index, which declined 11 factors to a studying of 54, The backside investment index studying since Might 2020. The decline Inside the investment index seems to be pushed extra by plans To primarytain again on developing new farm buildings and grain bins than buying for farm equipment. In June, 61% of producers said they lowered plans For mannequin spanking new enhancement, whereas 9% said they enhanced plans. As in contrast, 44% of producers indicated they plan To Scale again their equipment purchases, 45% plan To primarytain purchases fixed, and 10% plan To enhance purchases, all As in contrast with a yr in the past.

Rapidly rising manufacturing prices associated to each shopper and farm enter worth inflation are A precedence for agricultural producers. Almost 30% of producers said they anticipate farm enter prices to rise by 8% or extra Inside the upcoming yr, Which might be Greater than 4 events The typical rise Over the previous 10 yrs of simply 1.8%.

Neverthemuch less, 21% of producers anticipate prices paid for enters To enhance Decrease than 2%, Which might be extra Based mostly on current historic previous. Appaleasely, producers anticipate farm enter prices to rise extra quickly than prices for shopper gadgets, which might strain their margins. For event, simply 17% of respondents said they anticipate shopper prices to rise by 8% or extra over The subsequent yr.

Labor considerations May even be contributing to producers’ nervousness as farms that usually lease nonfamily labor reported extra problem in hiring labor this yr than in 2020. Just over half (54% in 2020, 51% in 2021) of these surveyed reported hiring nonfamily members. In June 2021, nearly two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they both had “some” or “A lot of problem” in hiring enough labor, that As in contrast with simply three out of 10 respondents in 2020.

Whilst sentiment dipped in June, producers reprimaryed bullish on farmland values. The Brief-Term Farmland Worth Expectations Index, based upon producers’ 12-month anticipateation for farmland values, declined 9 factors to a studying of 148; however, that matches the third-highest studying for the index since knowledge assortment started in 2015. The Prolonged-Term Farmland Worth Expectations Index, based upon producers’ 5-yr outlook, declined simply 3 factors to a studying of 155, which was furtherly the third-highest studying on doc for that index.

Corn and soybean producers gave a considerably mixed response when requested about their anticipateations for money leaseal costs in 2022. In Might, nearly two-thirds of producers said they anticipated costs to rise in 2022 As in contrast with 2021; however, in June Decrease than half (47%) of corn-soybean producers said they anticipate leaseal costs to rise Inside The approaching yr. Amongst People who anticipate costs To enhance, many anticipate the rise Shall be vital. Almost half anticipate money leaseal costs to rise between 5 To diminish than 10% and nearly one-third anticipate costs to rise by 10% or extra.

Curiosity in leasing farmland for photo voltaic power tasks has risen sharply Over the previous couple of yrs. Almost one-third (32%) of farms Inside the June survey said They’re Aware of photo voltaic leasing alternatives For his or her farmland. Of these Aware of leasing alternatives, 29% of them said That they had engaged in dialogues with corporations about leasing A pair of of their farmland. Less than 3% (2.6%) of all survey respondents reported having signed a photo voltaic lease on A pair of of their farmland. That is roughly double The share of producers who reported having signed a carbon sequestration contract on barometer surveys carried out this previous winter and spring.

Study The complete Ag Financial system Barometer report. The state of affairs furtherly supplys further assets – Similar to previous reviews, charts and survey methodology – and a type To hitch month-to-month barometer e-mail updates and webinars.

Every month, the Purdue Center for Enterprise Agriculture curleases A quick video evaluation of the barometer end outcomes. For A lot extra intypeation, Take A look at the Purdue Enterprise AgCast podcast. It Consists of An in depth breakdown Of every month’s barometer, Collectively with a dialogue of current agricultural information that impacts farmers.

The Ag Financial system Barometer, Index of Curlease Conditions and Index of Future Expectations Can be found on the Bloomberg Terminal beneath The subsequent ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.

Regarding the Purdue College Center for Enterprise Agriculture

The Center for Enterprise Agriculture was based in 2011 To curlease expert enhancement And educational packages for farmers. Housed within Purdue College’s Division of Agricultural Economics, The middle’s school and staff develop and execute evaluation And educational packages that tackle the completely diffelease wants of managing in right now’s Industry environment.

About CME Group

As a Outcome of the world’s main and most numerous derivatives market, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) permits consumers to commerce futures, decisions, money and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze knowledge – empowering market individuals worldwide to effectively handle hazard and seize alternatives. CME Group commerces supply the widest differ Of worldwide benchmark merchandise throughout all primary asset packages based on Rates of interest, equity indexes, overseas commerce, power, agricultural merchandise and metals. The agency supplys futures and decisions on futures buying and promoting by way of the CME Globex® plattype, fixed income buying and promoting by way of BrokerTec and overseas commerce buying and promoting on the EBS plattype. As properly as, it opecosts Definitely one of many world’s main central counterparty clearing suppliers, CME Clearing. With A selection of pre- and submit-commerce Providers beneathpinning The complete lifecycle of a commerce, CME Group furtherly supplys optimization and reconciliation services by way of TriOptima, and commerce processing services by way of Traiana.

CME Group, the Globe emblem, CME, Chicin the past Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are emblems of Chicin the past Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicin the past Board of Trade are emblems of Board of Trade of The metropolis of Chicin the past, Inc. NYMEX, Ny Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are emblems Of latest York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a commercemark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are emblems of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Common, S&P 500, and S&P are service and/or emblems of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Regular & Poor’s Financial Providers LLC and S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case Could Even be, and have been licensed To be used by Chicin the past Mercantile Exchange Inc. All completely diffelease emblems are the property of their respective house owners.  

Author: Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, [email protected]

Supply: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, [email protected]

Media Contacts:

Aissa Good, Purdue College, 765-496-3884

Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443

Related web websites:

Purdue College Center for Enterprise Agriculture

CME Group

Agricultural Communications: (765) 494-8415;

Maureen Manier, Division Head, [email protected]  

Agriculture News Website