Weather Service Forecasts Warm Months Ahead for Northwest | Capital Press
By Don Jenkins
Published at 9:30 am on Friday, July 17, 2026
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-average temperatures in August, September, and October for most of the U.S.
(National Weather Service/Contributed)
Washington, Oregon, and Idaho can expect warmer-than-usual weather during those months, with particularly high probabilities—up to 60%—in the Northwest region. The Weather Service attributes this forecast to three main factors:
- Model projections: Current conditions point towards warmer temperatures.
- Low soil moisture: Sunlight will heat the surface more instead of evaporating moisture.
- Historical trends: Recent summers and falls have been warmer than the 1991-2020 average, considered the norm by the Weather Service.
Beyond September, a "very strong" El Niño is expected to shift winter storms southward, potentially bringing colder, wetter weather to California while leaving the Northwest drier and warmer. The climate center gives an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall.
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