Mostly High Farm Input Costs to Persist, Says UI Economist
By Brad Carlson
Farmers face mostly high and rising input costs heading into 2026, according to Xiaoli Etienne, University of Idaho agricultural economics professor and Idaho Wheat Commission endowed chair in commodity risk management.
Low crop prices coupled with still-high production costs across categories create a "double squeeze," she explains. While fertilizer, labor, loan interest, and fuel prices have fluctuated since 2021, many remain significantly higher than pre-COVID levels. Specifically:
- Fertilizer prices, while down from their 2022 peak, are still elevated compared to before 2021.
- Across various farm input categories in 2026, prices will likely remain high and could continue to erode farmer profits.
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and international conflicts further contribute to volatile input costs, particularly for fertilizer, where Etienne predicts significant price fluctuations.
"Input costs likely to see the most volatility going into 2026 will be fertilizer again,” she stated, citing USDA data showing 15-30% increases in phosphate and nitrogen (all types) fertilizers between October 2024 and October 2025.
While potential drops in fertilizer prices are possible if China increases exports and European producers boost production, Etienne emphasizes the interconnectedness of global markets:
"What happens in other countries will affect the U.S. producers," she remarked. "Fertilizer is a global commodity." Approximately a quarter of fertilizer used in the U.S. is imported.
Similarly, farmland price increases continue nationwide, with regional variations existing. In Idaho, cropland values have increased by 4%.