Market Minute: U.S. Agriculture Losing Market Share
Oct. 15, 2026
By Joseph Brusuelas
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Reliable Trade Partners in Question
The U.S.'s attempts since 2018-2020 and 2025 to rebalance global trade in its favor have raised doubts about its reliability as a trade partner. This shift has led trade partners to seek alternatives.
American Soy Production: A Case Study
The decline in U.S. global market share in soy production mirrors policies implemented by President Richard Nixon in the 1970s, which aimed to curb inflation and protect U.S. producers. These actions inadvertently empowered Brazil's agricultural sector and left a lasting impression among Japanese clients, who questioned U.S. reliability.
A Changing Global Soy Landscape
- Production: The U.S. is no longer the top soybean producer. In 2006, it held 37% of global production; this share decreased to 28% in the 2025-26 growing season.
- Exports: Brazil, the new leader, supplies 41% of global soy exports, while the U.S. and Brazil together supply 83%.
- Soymeal Production: China has become the largest producer of soymeal, increasing from 19% to 30% of global production. U.S. production has dropped from 24% to 19%.
- Soymeal Exports: Argentina and Brazil collectively account for two-thirds of global soymeal exports, with Brazil's share growing from 23% to 29% and the U.S. share rising to 20%.
The Takeaway
Two attempts to reshape global trade to favor the U.S. resulted in a long-term decline in its share of soy exports.