Could a Historic Super El Niño Disrupt Global Agriculture in 2026?
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Historic Super El Niño Threatens Global Agriculture and Commodity Markets
New climate forecasts point to a potentially record-breaking El Niño event, raising concerns over crop production, food prices, and global trade flows.
Marcus Ellington is a U.S.-based journalist covering agricultural markets, global trade, and agricultural policy, with an international perspective on their impact across the global agri-food system.
Fuente: AgroLatam.com
Autor: AgroLatam.com
Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025, according to a United Nations report released on July 21, 2026, as improvements in Asia, Latin America and parts of Africa reduced the number of undernourished people to approximately 645 million. The report, prepared jointly by five U.N. agencies, matters to farmers, agribusinesses and policymakers because its gains could be threatened by climate volatility, geopolitical conflict and disruptions to global trade routes that are already raising fertilizer, fuel and transportation costs across agricultural supply chains.
The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report estimated that 7.8% of the global population experienced hunger in 2025, down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022. The decline represents measurable progress after years of pressure from inflation, armed conflict, pandemic-related disruptions and volatile commodity prices. For U.S. agriculture, the trend signals continued demand for grains, livestock products and agricultural technology, but it also highlights how quickly food access can deteriorate when production costs rise or export channels become unreliable.
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The most significant improvement occurred in Asia, particularly in India, where hunger fell below 10% as targeted welfare programs and stronger agricultural productivity expanded access to food. India represents nearly one-fifth of the global population, making its performance a major driver of the worldwide decline. Latin America and the Caribbean also recorded gains, while the Dominican Republic was removed from the global hunger map. These changes demonstrate how investment in yields, rural infrastructure, social protection and sustainable agriculture can strengthen food systems over time.
Africa recorded a slight improvement, but it remains the region facing the greatest challenge. Approximately 309 million Africans—one in every five people on the continent—experienced hunger in 2025. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Senegal and Zambia showed signs of progress, yet population growth, drought, conflict and limited access to agricultural inputs continue to constrain production. The disparity is economically important because Africa is expected to become an increasingly significant market for U.S. commodities, crop genetics, machinery and precision agriculture services.
Despite the positive figures, FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned that global food systems remain exposed to immediate economic and environmental threats. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for energy and agricultural inputs, are contributing to higher prices for fuel, fertilizers and freight. These increases move rapidly through the supply chain, affecting planting decisions, yields, commodity prices and retail food inflation. U.S. producers could also face greater input costs if global nitrogen and energy markets tighten.