Peanut Harvest and Market Outlook
Nathan Smith writes in Southern Ag Today: Peanut farmers are in the middle of harvest, with over 50% of U.S. peanuts harvested. Thanks to a record carryover from the near-record 2025 crop (3.55 million tons), near-term needs are covered. Harvest is slightly behind average due to later plantings and a temporary stoppage in the Southeast caused by Hurricane Isaias.
The October USDA Crop Production report projects total U.S. production to be 2.56 million tons, approximately 28% less than the 2025 crop. Projected yield is roughly the same as last year, at 3,766 pounds per acre. Yields have been declining throughout the 2026 crop year due to hot and dry weather in parts of the peanut belt.
Consumption of peanuts has been steady, ranging from 2.96 million tons in 2018 to 3.27 million tons in 2023. However, according to the USDA October Oil Crops Outlook report, peanut disappearance dropped to 2.83 million tons in 2025/26, while supply jumped to an all-time high. The USDA estimates total consumption in 2025/26 to be down by 13.3%, primarily due to a decrease in seed and residual use.
The drop in consumption and record supply led to record carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year. Farmers have cut acres by 28% in response to lower spring contract prices, expecting the lowest production since 2013. Despite this, peanut prices for uncontracted peanuts are expected to rebound in areas with a shorter crop. Global peanut supply is down, keeping U.S. exports stable. Total U.S. consumption is projected to increase to 3.1 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year. However, domestic consumption has not yet shown signs of improvement.
References:
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS). Oil Crops Outlook: October 2026. October 14, 2026. Link
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS). Crop Production. October 9, 2026. Link
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS). Crop Progress. November 2, 2026. Link
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS). Peanut Stocks and Processing. August 26, 2026. Link
- Smith, Nathan. Will Supply or Demand Forces Drive Peanut Prices Post-Harvest? Southern Ag Today.